Which Political Leader Has More Fake Followers?
"For as much as is made of social media being social, it can sometimes feel like you’re in a crowded room, talking to yourself."

Occasionally, I see a post on Twitter that reads, “Hello, is this thing on and does anyone hear me? I feel like I am talking to myself.” For as much as is made of social media being social, it can sometimes feel like you’re in a crowded room, talking to yourself. There are of course exceptions where fans and trolls alike congregate, usually around the usual suspects: health, entertainment, education, religion, finance, and politics.

 

Politicians have taken to twitter in recent years, trying to extend their reach outside more traditional avenues like radio and tv, but how well is that working and are they interacting with who they think they are or even want to?

 

With an election looming in Ontario, I wanted to explore this further and one of my own contacts (thanks Kat) inspired me to explore this with her oft variety of witty posts, this time about fake twitter accounts.

 

FAKE TWITTER ACCOUNTS

A fake twitter account is one that typically doesn’t have a real person on the other end of it. Often, the accounts are controlled by what is known as “bots”. A Twitter Bot is usually controlled by software, programmed to perform tasks that resemble the actions of a real person. There are ways to identify them, but most people don’t invest the time to do it, usually because they’re just happy to have more followers. More followers translate to a greater social media status and for some there is monetary or other gains that go with that.

 

The tool I used defines fake followers as, “accounts that are unreachable and will not see the account’s tweets (either because they’re spam, bots, propaganda, etc. or because they’re no longer active on Twitter).”

 

So, where do Ontario’s four political party leaders rank with their Twitter followers?

 

 

ONTARIO POLITICAL LEADERS’ FOLLOWERS

The online 3rd party tool revealed the following information about Twitter based followers for the political leaders of Ontario as of April 23, 2022.

 

Doug Ford

The Conservative Party Leader has the highest percentage of fake followers. Almost 50% of Doug Ford’s followers aren’t real. His reach and influence are assessed at 76%, so of the remaining 300,000+ thousand followers, about 237,000+ are being reached.

 

Andrea Horwath

The NDP Party Leader has the 2nd highest percentage of fake followers. About 40% of Andrea Horwath’s followers aren’t real. Her reach and influence are assessed at 77%, so of the remaining 94,000+ followers, about 72,300+ are being reached.

 

Steven Del Duca

The Liberal Party Leader has the 2nd lowest percentage of fake followers. About 16% of Steven Del Duca’s followers aren’t real. He also has the 2nd lowest number of followers at 56,400+. His reach and influence are the highest of the four leaders at 88%, so of the remaining 47,000+ followers, 41,400+ are being reached.

 

Mike Schreiner

The Green Party Leader has the lowest percentage of fake followers, although he also has the lowest number of followers. 8% of Mike Schreiner’s followers aren’t real. His reach and influence also sit at the lowest amoung the four at 62%, so of the remaining 50,600+ followers, 31,400+ are being reached.

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN

To put these results into perspective, when Twitter’s #1 followed account of Barack Obama is tested against the same criteria, its fake follower account status sits at 44.3% or 58.3 million fake followers from a total pool of 131.7 million. The biggest difference is that his reach and influence is at 100%, meaning he’s reaching all the remaining real accounts.

 

In Ontario, while the sitting Premier has the largest number of fake accounts, on a volume perspective, he is still reaching and influencing more accounts than any of his competition, his closest by about 165,000 more over the NDP. When you consider that in 2018 the voter turn-out reached 5,744,860, the direct return on investment using twitter seems low for all political parties. We also do not know if those accounts are all Ontario based voters.

 

What isn’t factored into the output is how much other media streams pick up the posts and convert them into videos, news articles, and other streams that possibly increase that reach and influence, regardless of follows.

 

CONCLUSION

While there are no election predictions to be found in these stats or just for fun exercise, it does at a minimum show that twitter follow numbers at the surface don’t tell the entire story. Reach, Influence, Quality, Content, Timing, and several other factors are contributing data points.

 

It also raises questions about accountability and responsibility when it comes to the account owner, as well as the service provider in terms of portraying the best true information to all data consumers.

 

 

This is an opinion article by Dante Palermo. It may be heard on  The Monthly Social Podcast or The Path Radio Mix Online. You can read other opinion articles on the blog page.

 

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